Russia

Oil Prices Volatile over U.S.–Russia Escalation

Oil Man in Texas

14 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

UPDATE: US President Trump has threatened 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if there is no peace deal after 50 days.

NEW YORK — Oil prices edged higher Monday as growing speculation around potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia lifted Brent crude above $68 per barrel for the first time in weeks. The move comes ahead of an official by President Trump on "aggressive" weapon sales to Ukraine with reports that the U.S. may deploy Patriot missile systems to Ukraine.

President Trump is also, reportedly, "seriously considering a dramatic expansion of sanctions targeting Russian oil exports" through a Senate bill targeting Russian oil exports — with a potential 500% tariff oil Russian oil into the US — that is gaining bipartisan traction.

🔍 Why It Matters

Supply disruption risk: Russia still accounts for roughly 10% of global oil flows. Even the threat of tighter sanctions—especially if secondary measures are involved—can rattle markets.
Sentiment shift: Bullish momentum is returning to crude after weeks of choppy trading, with traders bracing for policy surprises.

🛢️ Bulls and Bears Skeptical

Despite reports that President Trump is considering sanctions on Russia's energy infrastructure, many analysts are skeptical of any significant ban — for now.

While the U.S. has banned direct imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products, Trump has also worked hard to bring the price of oil down as a lever to bring down the price of a barrel of oil. Any sanctions or tariffs on Russian oil could send a sharp shock to the market.

📌 Bottom Line
As Washington edges closer to a harder sanctions line, oil markets are reacting. Brent over $70 may be just the start if policy hawks in D.C. gain traction—and if Russia’s shadow fleet faces fresh enforcement pressure.

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