New Offshore Drilling Targets Namibia and South Africa

WINDHOEK/CAPE TOWN — TotalEnergies is planning to drill up to seven wells in South Africa’s Deep Western Orange Basin, about 211 km off Saldanha Bay.

The campaign, still pending environmental approval, is slated to kick off in 2026, aiming to capitalize on Namibia’s proven oil successes across the maritime border .

The news comes soon after Shell has secured approval to drill up to five deep-water wells off South Africa's west coast.

🇳🇦 Namibia: From Wildcat Territory to Hot Oil Frontier

The southwest coast of Africa is undergoing a seismic transformation. Once considered an underexplored backwater, the Atlantic margins of Namibia and South Africa have roared to the forefront of the global oil hunt, powered by blockbuster offshore discoveries and a fresh wave of drilling activity.

Namibia now claims its spot as one of the world’s top new oil plays, boasting estimated offshore reserves of up to 20 billion barrels, a figure that’s lured supermajors and upstarts alike. With only about 20 exploration wells drilled in a massive 220,000km² offshore expanse, analysts say the region is vastly underexplored but swimming in potential.

This year alone, seven new wells are scheduled. TotalEnergies is progressing with its flagship Venus oilfield in Block 2913B, targeting a final investment decision by mid-2026, with recent data confirming outstanding reservoir quality. Galp’s Mopane discovery is collecting high-density seismic to prove up volumes, while BW Energy is chasing upside at the Kudu license after fresh prospectivity emerged for both oil and gas.

Recent drilling by Rhino Resources—hot on the heels of its Capricornus 1-X discovery in April—will soon test the Volans-1X prospect in the prolific Orange Basin, partnering with major players like Azule Energy (BP/Eni) and Namcor. Meanwhile, Chevron is lining up an exploration well in the Walvis Basin for 2026–2027, undeterred by earlier mixed results in the Orange Basin.

Yet, it hasn’t all been smooth sailing: Shell, despite pace-setting finds early in the rush, recently wrote down $400million on its PEL39 block.

Still, the resource potential and “open licensing regime” have swung the global spotlight as the next Guyana.

🇿🇦 South Africa: Gearing Up as the Next Orange Basin Oil Giant

The Orange Basin doesn’t stop at the Namibian border. South Africa, lured by neighborly success, is fast-tracking its own offshore ambitions. The government has modernized regulation—publishing a new Upstream Petroleum Act in April—to attract deepwater capital and technical expertise.

Noble rigs, Impact Oil & Gas, Eco Atlantic, and others are also ramping up technical evaluations and seismic in South Africa’s Orange Basin acreage. What’s at stake? Potentially game-changing new light oil fields with 45°API, promising the kind of high-margin barrels global refiners crave.

🛢️ Why It Matters

• Supply Signals: If results mirror Namibia’s, both ventures could unlock substantial barrels—from Total’s Venus field estimates in the billions to Shell’s reservoir targets—potentially easing long-term supply constraints.
• Price Implications: Market sees a bullish tilt—this is exploration exposure, not near-term production; any credible discovery boosts oil-price sentiment.
• Risk-Reward Tension: Frontier play means high cost, tech challenges, and red-tape knot. Yet, success in uncharted deepwater zones offers outsized leverage on the upside.

What’s Next? Bottlenecks, Breakthroughs, and the Global Picture

• Investors: The legendary underinvestment in African oil is giving way to fierce competition among the majors, with FIDs on Namibian projects expected by late 2026.
• Governance: Namibia’s open acreage across deepwater, ultra-deep, and shallow licenses positions it to attract further global capital, while South Africa’s regulatory overhaul is designed to deliver stability for the long haul.
• Risks: Environmental scrutiny is rising, with courts and civil society playing a growing role especially in South Africa. Execution risk remains high for early-phase projects, even as oil prices and shipping disruptions elsewhere reinforce the strategic value of these barrels.

Bottom Line:

South Africa’s Orange Basin may become the next marquee frontier. With two supermajors deepening their bets on 2026 drilling, markets will watch permit approvals, rig mobilization, and early results for signs of a new African oil wave.