OPEC

Eight OPEC Members Surprise Market with 548,000 bpd Hike on Production Ceiling — Crude Glut Fears Roil WTI, Brent Prices

Oil Man in Texas

06 Jul 2025 — 1 min read

VIENNA — July 6, 2025 — OPEC+ has announced a larger-than-expected production hike of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) for August 2025 — significantly above the anticipated 411,000 bpd.

The surprise increase, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, signals a pivot toward defending market share, even at the expense of price stability, as US President Donald Trump calls for the group to increase oil supply to lower gas prices.

Why This Matters for Global Oil Markets

Market share vs. price discipline: OPEC+’s internal cohesion is fracturing, as key producers prioritize volume over price, echoing dynamics last seen during the 2014–2016 oil crash.
Compliance cracks widen: Iraq and Kazakhstan’s excess output (Iraq and Kazakhstan are overproducing by a combined 750,000 bpd) undermines the group’s credibility and threatens to unravel coordinated supply management.
Demand risks linger: With Chinese imports flat and European refining margins thinning, summer demand may not be strong enough to absorb the new barrels.

What Could Happen Next

$65 Brent floor under threat: If OPEC+ fails to restrain rogue producers, Brent could dip below the key psychological threshold, triggering a wave of algorithmic sell-offs.
Bearish sentiment building: With U.S. shale still disciplined and demand uncertain, the market lacks a bullish catalyst to counter oversupply risks.
Volatility ahead: Traders expect increased price swings as hedge funds reposition and physical buyers slow purchases in anticipation of cheaper barrels.

📌 Bottom Line

OPEC+’s 548,000 bpd production hike — and political momentum, especially from the US — has significantly reopened crude oil’s downside risk.

BP Sells Wind Power Investment — Pivots Back to Oil

LONDON — July 18, 2025 — In a striking shift, BP (British Petroleum) has announced it is selling off its entire U.S. onshore wind power business, signaling a strategic return to oil and gas as the core of its future growth. The deal includes 10 wind farms across the U.S.

EU Sets New Russian Oil Cap — Will it Work This Time?

BRUSSELS — the European Union has set the Russian oil price cap to roughly $47.60 per barrel, setting it dynamically at 15% below market rates (so between $45-$50) — aiming to squeeze Kremlin revenues without halting flows altogether. 🗣️ "Done! This morning, we Europeans have adopted unprecedented sanctions against Russia

China Oil Demand Surges as US Inventories Fall, Trump Says $64 Oil “Is Great”

Washington D.C. — the latest economic data from the world’s two biggest economies is putting oil back in the spotlight: * China is burning through more crude than it has in over a year * while U.S. stockpiles just saw another steep drop And now, Donald Trump is weighing in

200,000 Barrels Shut In as Drone Strikes Target Oilfields Across Iraqi Kurdistan

Erbil, Kurdistan — an estimated 150,000-200,000 barrels per day of oil has been shutdown after a wave of drone attacks on oil facilities in Iraq’s Kurdistan oil sector. 🗣️ “The Kurdistan Region has lost nearly 200,000 b/d after drone attacks by criminal militias on Baghdad’s payroll.